Covering live poker tournaments for a living affords me the chance to look countless thousands of hands played out, a lot of which give interesting and potentially valuable insights into how players — both amateurs and professionals — play the sport. On this ongoing series, I'll highlight hands I've seen on the tournaments I've covered and notice if we will glean anything useful from them.
The Scene
It's again time for the arena Series of Poker Main Event to air on televisions everywhere, as episodes first hit ESPN a couple of weeks ago. That suggests various televised hands for poker fans to dissect, and there is a lot to unpack in every episode.
This week, we'll be looking at a hand from Day 5 of this summer's WSOP Main Event, when blinds were 25,000/50,000 with a 5,000 ante and about 100 players remained in contention for the $8 million first-place prize.
The hand came up between experienced and highly skilled pro Tony Gregg and William Kassouf, a British player who made headlines and drew cameras together with his chatty play. On the point this hand took place, Kassouf had a monster stack of greater than 7 million and have been playing very loose and aggressive, while Gregg had about 1.75 million.
The Action
Preflop, Gregg opened from early position to 110,000. Kassouf made it 260,000 from the button, and Gregg called.
The flop came 
, and Gregg checked. Kassouf bet 425,000, and Gregg called, leaving himself about 1.2 million back. The turn 
prompted checks from both players, then the river brought a 
. Gregg bet 190,000 into the pot of nearly 1.5 million.
"I'm hoping you have got ace-king or queens," Kassouf said
Kassouf splashed in a call, and his 
was good against 
.
Concept and Analysis
Everything is pretty normal here preflop, with Gregg creating a standard opening with a robust starting hand and Kassouf picking up the aces. It is a mandatory three-bet together with his aggressive image, unless he has some reason to think a player within the blinds goes to shove.
When the flop arrives, pairing Gregg, he's in position possibly to lose a large number of chips as he's essentially in a cooler situation against a player as aggressive as Kassouf. Gregg makes a sexy standard check-call at the flop. There is no explanation for him to lift against a player who has shown he's willing to bluff off chips.
On the opposite hand, I LOVE Kassouf's bet here as he sizes pretty big, betting 425,000 right into a pot of 635,000. The fashion of late appears to be leaning toward smaller and smaller continuation bets, but this board hits the variety of Gregg's raise-calling hands pretty hard. He will have a number of Broadway cards in there which are seeking to flop top pair, so Kassouf is getting maximum value out of his hand with a large bet.
William Kassouf
Kassouf's decision to test back the turn, though, could have cost him the risk to stack Gregg here. On a board of , Gregg has not up to a pot-sized bet left. Surely, there are some hands like 
and 
that now beat Kassouf. Gregg may also have slow played something like a suite of tens.
But Kassouf goes to have some semi-bluffing hands in his range on any such draw-heavy board. That suggests a worth bet this is credibly balanced by his bluffs, meaning worse hands are likely going to name him.
As the hand played out, the arrives at the end and Gregg makes a cagey move of firing out a tiny blocking bet of 190,000. That is the very best board for the blocking bet and an unbelievable time to make use of it.
In position, there is no real reason behind Kassouf to bet if he has a hand like 
or an inferior king with which he made a mild three-bet, say 
. He can't ever fold to a raffle of 190,000 into that pot, so Gregg gets value from those hands.
On the opposite hand, one of the most risks of the blocking bet is that you'll be bluff-raised. However, is that ever going to happen here?
First, have a look at the dimensions of the pot. There's greater than 1.5 million within the pot after Gregg's bet, and he only has about 1 million back. A bluff-raise would likely mean a shove, and Kassouf, despite having that massive stack, is unlikely to wish to risk that much against a perceptive player like Gregg who can and can pick off bluffs lightly. (In fact, earlier we saw Gregg call a river bet with king-high to overcome Kassouf.)
Second, take a look at that board. There are any collection of hands Gregg may have which can be credible value bets, and a raise by Kassouf represents a very narrow range.
Gregg basically put Kassouf in a place where he was jamming backdoor flushes, calling some weaker hands, and calling some better hands like aces that probably would have bet in the community of 500,000 when checked to that is. the best-case scenario for a blocking bet.
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